May 03, 2010

Why do they do this?

Reuters: "The US economy grew at a slightly slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter, held back by inventories and exports. Resurgent consumer spending offered evidence of a sustainable recovery. Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.2 percent pace, the Commerce Department. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and services output within US borders, growing at a 3.4% rate,"

of note: "Excluding inventories the economy expanded at a 1.6 percent rate following a 1.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter." Take out the census workers and you have a better picture. Recovery? What recovery??

CNN:"While there may be signs of greater strength, the report also detailed some of the headwinds facing the economy. Investment in residential real estate fell nearly 11%, ending a two-quarter rebound in that battered sector and subtracting from overall growth. And commercial real estate investment dropped at a 14% rate."

If residential real estate and commercial real estate are dropping at 11% and 14%, pretty much tells you there is no growth.

Yet this is spun like great news. I wonder why?

CNBC, August 28, 2008. The GDP was 3.3%. The media was reporting it like a recession. "Despite the surprising growth in the US economy in the second quarter, many economists and average Americans aren't convinced that the country has avoided a recession. 'The reason this feels like a recession is from the standpoint of the consumer it basically is,' said David Resler, the chief economist at Nomura Securities. 'Consumer spending is very weak. It isn't going to get any stronger at any time soon, and that's with the benefit of the economic stimulus.' The Commerce Department attributed the unexpected 3.3% jump."

Of course, this is right before the election. So the Commerce Department attributed the unexpected 3.3% jump in the GDP to stronger than expected consumer spending and exports.

So now we've got 3.2%, and, cheerleading! "We're coming back." Seems a bit dishonest that back in 2008 3.3% was DOOOOM!!!

No comments: